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Pakistan Nexus: Emerging Threats and Responses by India

发布时间:2017-03-03
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SINO – PAKISTAN NEXUS: EMERGING THREATS AND RESPONSES BY INDIA

“To see ourselves as other see us is a rare and valuable gift, without a doubt. But in international relations what is still rarer and far more useful is to see others as they see themselves.”

  • Jacques Barzun

INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY

1.The corner stone of Pakistan’s strategic policies for last forty years has been its undying strategic and military relationship with China. The relationship has matured to be strong enough, that in present milieu, the Beijing – Islamabad axis play a central role in Asia’s geopolitics. This special relationship is of prime importance to India. This is so, because both China and Pakistan happen to be India’s immediate neighbors and share a rather complicated history of violent wars and deep rooted conflicts that continue to persist and challenge their efforts at building harmony and progress. Understanding and then responding to the well-known ‘time tested’, ‘all–weather[1]’, ‘defence centric’, ‘special relation’ & ‘Iron Friends’[2] relationship between China and Pakistan remains one of the most serious challenges for Indian literati and strategy architects.

2.China is Pakistan’s trusted military partner as well as economic hope. In recent times, the relationship between two countries which was marked by geo strategic interests initially and hence more military oriented, is getting influenced more by economic considerations. The two countries had different social and political systems, ideological moorings and objectives, but they came to share common hostility towards India and apprehensions about the USSR. Relations between them developed in depth after the Sino-Indian conflict of 1962 when a number of agreements on the boundary, trade, air service, radio-photo etc., were signed, friendly visits became frequent and Peking extended economic and military assistance to Pakistan. Thus, a special relationship came to be forged between the two countries. There are various drivers of the relationship which range from strategic interests, military relations, economic relations, common perceptible threats to energy security and the list goes on. These drivers have adapted themselves to changing geo-strategic imperatives and hence sustaining the ‘special relationship’[3].

3.Sino-Pakistan relationship has far reaching implications for Indian interests both at regional as well as global level. Our policy makers often call it ‘Sino-Pak Nexus” because of the perceived India (anti) centric quintessence of the alliance. The relationship has always been a prominent factor in India’s foreign policy and military plans. Is the Sino-Pak nexus actually anti-India in its spirit? How is the future trajectory of this relationship likely to unfold? India needs to analyse the implications of the Sino-Pak relations to be able to formulate an effective strategy to counter the same.

METHODOLOGY

Statement of the Problem

4.What are the drivers of Sino-Pak relations in the military sphere and the growing economic relations between the two countries? Is it solely aimed at tying down India or is fuelled by the common strategic and geo-economic considerations pertinent to China and Pakistan? What are the potential implications and strategic choices for India to counter Sino-Pak collusivity?

Hypothesis

5.The Sino-Pak collusivity is solely driven by anti-India sentiment. While Pakistan’s quest for parity with India has been a major national sentiment in the country, the same suits China to perfection. China wants to keep India fixed to its problems with Pakistan and in the process keep India tied down to South Asia, because as long as India keeps getting hyphenated with Pakistan, its status will never be seen as equal to China in the global affairs.

Methods of Data Collection

6.The information for this dissertation has been gathered through study of various books, journals and newspapers from DSSC, Library. The medium of Internet has been exploited to gather a major part of the information.

Scope

7.The dissertation aims at tracing briefly the history of Sino-Pak relations. The bilateral relationship in military and economic spheres is being researched as these are two important aspects of the Sino-Pakistan relations. While military ties were the prominent part of relationship till about late 1990s, the economic aspect of the relationship started gaining prominence from late 1980s. An important aspect of the dissertation is to identify the drivers of Sino-Pak relationship. The identification of drivers of the relationship can help in ascertaining the prominent aspects of this relationship ie. whether it is solely based on anti-India sentiment or draws its relevance/strength from strategic and geo-economic considerations. The study also aims to discern the future potential of this relationship and most importantly the implications for India and recommendations on way forward for India. The political, diplomatic, people to people contact aspects of relationship have been left out of the scope of the dissertation.

Organisation of the Dissertation

8.The subject is proposed to be studied under the following headings:-

(a) Chapter I - Brief Historical Perspective of Sino-Pakistan

Relations.

(c) Chapter II - Sino – Pakistan Relations in Military and

Economic Spheres.

(d) Chapter III - Drivers of Sino – Pakistan Relations and their

Future Potential.

(e) Chapter IV - Implications of the Sino – Pakistan Relations

for India.

(f)Chapter V - The Way Ahead.

.

CHAPTER I

BRIEF HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE OF SINO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

9.The Sino-Pak relations for the past six decades have been marked by strong strategic, affable and multifaceted political, economic and military associations. Poetic phrases like “sweeter than honey[4]”, “all-weather friendship” that is “higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans”, “stronger than steel”, dearer than eyesight”[5] have often been used to glorify this relationship. The relationship which initially catered for protecting mutual strategic interests has evolved over a period of time to cover wide areas like energy, economy, trade, industry, infrastructure, strategic investments, people to people contact and counter terrorism. China has been the dominant partner in the relationship, with Pakistan mostly being the recipient of Chinese magnanimity. A peep into the Chinese strategic culture clearly brings to the fore the fact that China engages essentially with powers that are strong and stable. However, its relations with Pakistan belies this fact. A Chinese diplomat, once asked by a US delegate about China's obdurate backing for Pakistan, the Chinese reportedly responded with remark: "Pakistan is our Israel"[6].

10.The year 2011 marked the 60th anniversary of diplomatic association between Beijing and Islamabad. The bi-lateral association amongst the two nations has borne as a constant, trust-bound relationship. This strategic friendship has endured various geo-strategic changes. The notable changes have been the improvement in Sino-Indian relations from late 1980s onwards, the disintegration of USSR, developments post the terrorist attacks of 9/11 with Pakistan being roped in US led Global War on Terror (GWOT) as well as the contemporary Indo-US strategic coming together.

History of Sino Pak Relations

11.On 4 January 1950 Pakistan recognised “Mao Tse Tung” government as dejure government of China. Pakistan was the third non-communist state, second commonwealth and the first Muslim state to extend official recognition to the beleaguered and completely isolated Communist China. The formal diplomatic relations between the countries started on 10 May 1951. Major General N A M Raza was the first Pakistani ambassador to Beijing. That was the period when China really needed Pakistan more than the other way round and between 1947-53, Pakistan really warmed up to Chinese diplomacy. However, till the year 1955 the links between two countries were overshadowed by the fact that Pakistan was a formal military ally of the West. Pakistan was member of Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation, mainly directed against China[7]. Bilateral relations got impetus at the Bandung Conference in 1955[8]. The Chinese premier Zhou Enlai met Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Ali Bogra and an understanding emerged that vast scope of improving relations in various fields did exist. The meeting at Bandung Conference was followed by spate of high level exchange of visits. It was during these visits that China could assuage Pakistan’s apprehensions of Chinese having aggressive intentions against Pakistan with respect to territorial claims. At that point of time, China had been claiming certain parts of Pakistani territory along 300 miles long undefined border between Xinjiang and POK. The year 1959 saw further strengthening of diplomatic relations in the aftermath of Dalai Lama being granted asylum by India. The Pakistani interest in demarcating boundaries with China in Northern Kashmir was conveyed as early as in 1961[9]. During the same year, Pakistan furthered relations when it voted for China’s rights in United nations[10].

12.The 1962 Sino – Indo war represented the nadir in the New Delhi – Beijing relations & provided a fillip to the Sino-Pakistan cooperation. On 2 March 1963 China and Pakistan signed a border agreement settling boundaries between China’s Xinjiang and the contiguous area which were under the Pakistani control[11]. The common threat perception posed by Soviet Union-India friendship was one of the driving factors of Sino-Pak relations in the early years. The Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971 cemented the relations between two friends. China’s noise making in 1965 war backed by ultimatum to India did pressurise India and help Pakistan cause. In aftermath of 1971 war, Chinese made amends for their helplessness during the war by vetoing Bangladesh’s entry in UN. In the decade of 1970s Pakistan stood by, China on all important issues especially those relating to the question of China’s sovereignty. The examples are the cases of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet. Pakistan also supported China on Human rights issues. China often acknowledges the Pakistani support in the early 1970s helped break the international isolation of Beijing. The split in the communist world and the USSR-China Ussuri river war of 1969 divided the communist bloc. The United States of America decided to take advantage of this situation and decided to make friendly overtones to China. As it had no link with the Chinese, it requested Islamabad to facilitate the contact[12]. Islamabad facilitated Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan provided new grounds for strengthening the relations. Both countries shared the view that Soviet presence in Afghanistan was detrimental to the security of the region. The year 1982 saw further strengthening and diversification of the relationship with the creation of Joint Committee for Economy, Trade and Technology[13]. In late 1980s, negotiations started regarding transfer of M-11 variant missiles to Pakistan[14]. The Chinese President Jiang Zemin visited Pakistan in 1996. The visit resulted in mutual agreement to establish a comprehensive friendship[15].

Sino-Pakistan Relations Since 2000

13.Sino-Pak relations have continued on the same steady path since the turn of the century. In the aftermath of 9/11 events, Pakistan became a frontline state as part of the US led Global War on Terror (GWOT). While initially there were apprehensions on part of Chinese of the US presence in its proximity, however the same has not dented the Sino-Pak relations. The bilateral relations between the two countries have been marked by periodic high level visits and plethora of agreements in varied fields. A landmark development in the bilateral relationship was the signing of the Joint Declaration on direction of the bilateral relations in 2003 during the visit of the then president of Pakistan. This joint declaration provides a road map for the Pakistan-China relations[16]. Some prominent high level visits have been the vis of then premier Wen Jiabao in 2005, vis of then Pakistani President Musharaff in 2006, vis of then Chinese Prime Minister Hun Jintao in Nov 2006, vis of the Zardari to China in 2008. President Zardari in his term of five years, visited China seven times[17]. The same highlights the close cooperation between the two countries. In recent times, Prime minister Sharif visited China in 2013 and visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping is on the cards, the same being postponed since September 2014 due to internal security situation in Pakistan[18]. The treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was signed between the two countries in 2005[19].

14.China supported and secured Pakistan’s observer status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Pakistan helped steer China’s acceptance as observer in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Pakistan’s need for China’s support in international organizations is apparent, given the latter’s international status and influence, but even as a global player, it is important for China to have dependable partners to defend its positions and point of view. Pakistan has been deeply conscious of Chinese concerns and has ongoing active cooperation with China for both intelligence sharing and neutralizing East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The relationship is still going strong with increasing contacts at strategic, military, economic & cultural planes. Timelines of important events in China Pakistan Relations are attached as Appendix A[20].

Appendix A

(Refers to para 14 of Chapter I)

IMPORTANT EVENTS IN SINO-PAK RELATIONS

1950 – Pakistan becomes the third non-communist country, and first Muslim one, to recognize the People's Republic of China.

1951 – Beijing and Karachi establish diplomatic relations.

1963 – Pakistan cedes the Trans-Karakoram Tract to China, ending border disputes.

1970 – Pakistan helps the U.S. arrange the 1972 Nixon visit to China.

1978 – The Karakoram Highway linking the mountainous Northern Pakistan with Western China officially opens.

1980s – China and the U.S. provide support through Pakistan to the Afghan guerrillas fighting Soviet forces.

1986 – China and Pakistan reach a comprehensive nuclear co-operation agreement.

1996 – Chinese President Jiang Zemin pays a state visit to Pakistan.

1999 – A 300-megawatt nuclear power plant, built with Chinese help in Punjab province, is completed.

2001 – A joint-ventured Chinese-Pakistani tank, the MBT-2000 (Al-Khalid) MBT is completed.

2002 – The building of the Gwadar deep sea port begins, with China as the primary investor.

2003 – Pakistan and China signed a $110 million contract for the construction of a housing project on Multan Road in Lahore.

2007 – The Sino-Pakistani joint-ventured multirole fighter aircraft – the JF-17 Thunder (FC-1 Fierce Dragon) is formally rolled out.

IMPORTANT EVENTS IN SINO-PAK RELATIONS (CONTINUED)

2008 – Pakistan welcomes the Chinese Olympic Torch in an Islamabad sports stadium, under heavy guard amidst security concerns.

2008 – China and Pakistan sign a free trade agreement.

2008 – Pakistan and China to build a railway through the Karakoram Highway, in order to link China's rail network to Gwadar Port.

2008 – The F-22P frigate, comes into service with the Pakistani Navy.

2009 – The ISI arrest several suspected Uyghur terrorists seeking refuge in Pakistan.

2010 – Pakistan and China conduct a joint anti-terrorism drill.

2010 – China donates $260 million in dollars to flood hit Pakistan and sends 4 military rescue helicopters to assist in rescue operations.

2010 – Wen Jiabao visits Pakistan. More than 30 billion dollars worth of deals were signed.

2011 – Pakistan is expected to buy air to air SD 10 missiles from China for its 250 JF 17 thunder fighter fleet.

2013 - Management of Gwadar port is handed over to state-run Chinese Overseas Port Holdings after previously being managed by Singapore’s PSA International and it becomes a matter of concern for India.

2013 – Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visits Pakistan. Trade between China and Pakistan hit a 12-month figure of $12 billion for the first time in 2012.

2013 – On July 5, 2013, Pakistan and China approved the Pak-China Economic corridor which will link Pakistan’s Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea and Kashghar in Xinjiang in northwest China. The $18 billion project will also include the construction of a 200 km-long tunnel.

2013 – On December 24, 2013, China announced a commitment $6.5 billion to finance the construction of a major nuclear power project in Karachi, the project which will have two reactors with a capacity of 1,100 megawatts each.

IMPORTANT EVENTS IN SINO-PAK RELATIONS (CONTINUED)

2014 - Chinese Premier announced investment of $31.5 billion in Pakistan mainly in countries energy, infrastructure and port expansion for Gwadar. According to The Express Tribune initially projects worth $15-20 billion will be started which include Lahore-Karachi motorway, Gwadar Port expansion and energy sector projects will be launched in Gadani and six coal projects near Thar coalfield. The newspaper further claimed that the government has also handed over to Pakistan Army the task of providing fool-proof security to Chinese officials in Baluchistan, Pakistan in a bid to address Beijing’s concerns and execute the investment plan in the province, which will get 38% of the funds.

2014 - On May 22, 2014, The governments of Pakistan and China signed an agreement to start a metro train project in Lahore, Express News reported. The 27.1 kilometres long track named Orange Line will be built at the cost of $1.27 billion.


[1] Terms often used to refer to China-Pakistan friendship. The same appeared in statement by Chinese Official. http://tribune.com.pk/story/759042/.

[2] Article ‘Iron Friends’ China, Pakistan Ink Pacts at APEC Meet published in The Hindu dated 09 Nov 2014. http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/

[3] Reetika Sharma, Ramvir Sharma. India and the Dynamics of World Politics: A book on Indian Foreign Policy. books.google.co.in/books?isbn=8131732916.

[4] Statement of Nawaz Sharif. Published in The telegraph on 05 Jul 2013. http://www.telegraph.co.uk

[5] China –Pakistan relations.Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ China%E2%Pakistan.

[6] Comment made by a Chinese diplomat. Appeared in Al Jazeera newspaper on 28 Oct 2010. http://www.aljazeera.com / indepth/features/2010/10/20101028135728235512.html

[7] PL Bhola. Pakistan China Relations. p 26.

[8] Rizwan Naseer, Musarat Amin. “Sino-Pak Relations : Natural Alliance Against Common Threats”. Berkeley Journal of Social Sciences, Vol 1 No 2 Feb 2011.

[9] Sino-Pak Agreement. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Pakistan_Agreement.

[10] Rizwan Zeb. “Pakistan China Relations : Where They Go From Here”. Centre for Muslim States and Societies (CMSS), University of Western Australia. http://revistas.ucm.em/index.php/

[11] Op.cit. Sino-Pak Agreement. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Pakistan_Agreement.

[12] Op.cit. Rizwan Zeb. “Pakistan China Relations : Where They Go From Here”. Centre for Muslim States and Societies (CMSS), University of Western Australia. http://revistas.ucm.em/php/

[13] Article “Relations Between China and Pakistan”. University of Calcutta. http://www.caluniv.ac.in/academic/China%20Study

[14] CNS report titled “China's Missile Exports and Assistance to Pakistan. http://cns.miis.edu/

[15] Op.cit. Rizwan Zeb. “Pakistan China Relations : Where They Go From Here”. Centre for Muslim States and Societies (CMSS), University of Western Australia. http://revistas.ucm.em/index/

[16] Ibid.

[17] News article in Business Standard on 07 December 2014. http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/pakistani-president-to-visit-china-next-week-114021101255_1.html

[18] News in China Daily on 07 Sept 2014. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china /2014-09/07/ content_18559574.htm

[19] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China website. http://www,fmprc.gov.nc. Accessed on 20 Oct 2014.

[20] Wikipedia. China –Pakistan Relations. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations

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