A probable lesson conveyed by the LTTE?

A probable lesson conveyed by the LTTE?

The ‘Liberation Tigers for Tamil Elam’ (LTTE) may have died out but not without providing a probable lesson for states to include in their terrorism studies syllabi. The LTTE conducted 100 plus suicide bombings between the years 1988 to 2009 in which the approximate figures for death and individuals injured are 1200 and 3500 respectively. Why were suicide bombings popular with LTTE? The well-structured answer to this may be derived from the work of Robert A. Pape, an expert in the study of international security affairs through his article “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism” explained how suicide attacks and suicide bombs are becoming popular and have rational political motives galvanizing them as a weapon of coercion used by terrorist organisations. Pape’s article establishes the relevance of rationality behind suicide attacks and majorly focussed on their strategic relevance in the outcome of the attacks but this isn’t it, if one observes these attacks and ponders further, the strategic relevance becomes clearer even during the attack stage. Understanding the strategic relevance in the attack stage is an important aspect to deepen the existing knowledge in terrorism studies.

The analogy of a suicide bomb to a ballistic missile is the bedrock in understanding the strategic relevance of suicide bombs in the attack stage. The said analogy is not new and has been used by some researchers for their studies in the past. In 2003, Michael J. Hopmeier of Unconventional Concepts, Inc. presented the following comparison between a Ballistic Missile and Suicide bomb on the basis of their manufacture/manufacturing process, launch and terminal impact parameters.

Table 1 Comparison between ballistic missile and suicide bomb

Table 1 is a simplified form of the comparison that Hopmeier made. The comparison did highlight the similarity between ballistic missiles and suicide bombs. However Hopmeier’s analogy between a suicide bomb and a ballistic missile falls short in front of a comparison using logical connectivity between suicide bombs and cruise missiles. LTTE used suicide bombs as their self-developed cruise missiles with the same logic with which great powers use cruise missiles for the attacks. Hopmeier’s analogy between a suicide bomb and a ballistic missile should be replaced at this point with the analogy between ‘suicide bombs and cruise missiles’.

Cruise missiles are different from ballistic missiles as they are difficult to detect and difficult to intercept once detected since they do not follow a ballistic parabolic path, thereby it can be derived that cruise missiles have specific tactical advantages over ballistic missiles. Among the cruise missiles the Tomahawk cruise missile manufactured by Raytheon Company is the most popular. In 2013, the international community predicted that ‘Tomahawk missiles’ would be the ‘coercing weapon’, likely to be used against Syria by the United States in case of crossing over of the ‘Red line’ of chemical weapons usage. In 2011, USS Barry fired the 2000th Tomahawk Land-Attack Missile (TLAM) and the event was feted by the US Navy. The attention given to a single missile does highlight its reputation in the US defence policies to force the adversary to surrender or alter its policies. Similarly, LTTE selected suicide bombs to meet their political objective of compelling the adversaries to surrender or alter their policies. Robert Pape’s article did explain the presence of this rationality and political objective behind suicide bombing, but did not explain the tactical aspects of suicide bombs at the attack stages, the almost similar which made cruise missiles popular over ballistic missiles.

To understand the deliberate impulse behind LTTE suicide bombs one needs to compare it with the Tomahawk cruise missile on the basis key tactical parameters.

• Accuracy

Tomahawk missiles have an accuracy of near 85 per cent although their accuracy depends on precise and up-to-date intelligence. Former US National Security Advisor Sandy Berger in an interview to the Huffington Post said that in 1998 the Tomahawk missiles missed Osama Bin Laden, who was then wanted for the US embassy bombings, by a few hours. The Tomahawk’s accuracy against moving targets is not combat proven as the technology to track moving targets has been developed recently. A suicide bomb can move with the target and can find the right opportunity to execute the attack.

Table numbers 2 and 3 contains the details of successful and failed LTTE suicide bomb attacks and can be used to determine the accuracy of LTTE suicide bombs. From 1987 to 2009, LTTE conducted a total of 25 (recorded) suicide bomb attacks aimed at political targets of which 14 were successful and 11 were failed attempts. LTTE suicide bombs had a success rate of 56 per cent. Tomahawks are definitely more accurate than suicide bombs in theory but a count on missiles not hitting/identifying intended targets may rebut the claim.

Table 2 LTTE Political Assassinations using Suicide Bombs

Table 3 LTTE failed assassination attempts

• Range

LTTE successfully carried out suicide bombings in 32 locations. The locations were mostly well within the adversary’s area of control. With reference to Figure 1, the northernmost point of LTTE attack was Sriperumbudur, India and southernmost point was in Mattara, Sri Lanka. The distance between Sriperumbudur and Mattara is approximately 750 Km. This distance gives an idea of the stretch of the attacks on a linear scale but is inadequate to determine an exact range.

Tomahawk missiles have an origin point and range maximum of 2500 KM. No LTTE suicide bomb incidents were recorded to have occurred in countries apart from Sri Lanka and India although Islamist terroristgroupAl-Qaeda fundamentally operating in the ‘Middle East’ is held responsible for the September 11, 2001 World Trade Centre Attack. The distance from Middle East Asia to the United States is roughly 10, 000 kilometres. With the Al-Qaeda example it is hard to determine the exact range of terrorism and suicide bombs whereas the range of cruise or even Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) is predictable. The lack predictability gives more advantage to suicide bombs in comparison to missiles.

Figure 1 Map of LTTE suicide bomb attacks

• Stealth, Speed and Smartness

Tomahawk cruise missiles travel in subsonic speeds close to the ground and are hard to detect. The missiles do not follow a ballistic parabolic path. The missile flies to the target and can loiter around before striking the target. Most of the missile defence systems cannot intercept the missile since they are programmed to intercept the missiles on predicted parabolic path. LTTE suicide bombs evidently lacked the subsonic speeds but adopted measures to maintain stealth to reach target.

Table 4 LTTE stealth tactics

Table 4 highlights a few of the stealth tactics adopted by LTTE suicide bombs. The suicide bombers were usually people who the security forces expected least to pose any threat. The smartness of a human suicide bomb with real-time awareness and ability to adapt will be hard to be matched by cruise missiles which respond and react completely to command.

• Cost

Human life is invaluable in comparison to Tomahawks which cost US$ $607,000 per unit. This poses a billion dollar question as to why a human readily takes other’s life and why a human is willing to sacrifice one’s own life. This question probably may never find an appropriate answer. ‘Sacrifice for a cause’ undervalues human life. Considering the gaining popularity of suicide bombs with terrorist organisations it can be shamefully determined that a human life is cheaper than a few thousand dollars.

Conclusion

Robert Pape stated the presence of rational leaders behind the planning and execution of suicide bomb attacks. LTTE understood the relevance of suicide bomb as a key weapon in their arsenal. The logic by which great powers develop high-tech weapons also supports the thought process of terrorist organisations. LTTE evolved and adopted the technique of suicide bombing. When a comparison is made between LTTE suicide bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles on the basis of Accuracy, Range, Stealth, Speed, Smartness and Cost, the comparators seems to be in neck and neck competition to each other with regards to tactical advantage. The existence of tactical advantage of suicide bombs implies their strategic relevance even during attacks and not just the outcome.

The lesson thereby conveyed by LTTE is that terror organisations which are asymmetrically weaker than its adversary will adapt and ameliorate to meet certain objectives just like stronger nations. This implies the world should be vigil and equipped to prevent and counter new and modern forms of terrorism which at present may fall only in the category of fiction.